Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Super Tuesday Analysis...

Despite my bitterness about the primary (or lack thereof) in my state, I'm obviously interested in the results of Super Tuesday (which I always imagine being said in an echo-y booming voice, like a monster truck announcer). Pam Spaulding, at Pandagon, discusses the reuslts over here. She notes that this is a pretty close race so far, and that it's refreshing to see a primary that's actually a race, and not a quick coronation.

I was checking out the results on Salon this morning, and there were a few things that jumped out at me.

If you look at "Tuesday's results by state: Democrats", you see some interesting things happening there. As far as delegates won, Clinton is in the lead with 458 to Obama's 357. But, the breakdown of where those delegates come from is what was really interesting to me. While Clinton took the majority so far, in the places where she won, it was pretty close for the most part. In the 8 states that she won, she won by an average of 56.13%, with her biggest victory coming in at 69% (which was the only victory she had above 57%). She took 3 of the 4 biggest states, and both of the states with over 200 delegates (NY and CA).

Obama, on the other hand, has a number of states where he took an overwhelming majority, despite having taken fewer delegates, overall. The first thing I noticed was that Obama took more states overall- 13 to Clinton's 8. On top of that, in the states where he won, Obama tended to win by a larger margin, with an average win of 63.15%. His biggest win was a whopping 79%, with three wins coming in over 70%, and 8 of his 13 coming in at over 60%.

I'm not sure what, if anything, that means, but I found it interesting.

Things continue to be intersting when you start looking at the Republican results, too- The Republican vote is being pulled three ways, so, overall, the candidates tended to come out with lower percentages than the Democrats, but, right now, McCain is pulling the most delegates. This, despite the fact that he doesn't have a single result over 55%. Romney, even in a 3-way race, takes the single biggest win with 90% of Utah, and 60% of Colorado. McCain has a pretty strong lead there.

Also, Huckabee is the only candidate not to get a caricature illustration. Not that they could have picked a less flattering picture for the guy.

3 comments:

jimmycav said...

Salon now has the total delegate count at 696 for Obama and 689 for Clinton. MSNBC has Obama at 838 and Clinton at 834. I think as they finalize some of the numbers, they'll probably continue to change a bit.

It's also important to note that Clinton has a significant lead in superdelegates at this point, but there are still about 500 or so that haven't declared yet.

I like this page; it lists everything, including the superdelegates:

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

Mark said...

Just a quick note: While Obama/Clinton appear to be in a dead heat, it should be noted that Clinton's delegate count is heavy on the superdelegates, meaning that Obama is much more popular with voters and Clinton is much more popular with the DNC.

donnadarko said...

She also won the most popular votes yesterday, a measure of popularity with voters.

She won the youth votes in CA and MA, the women's vote by 27 points in Massachusetts, 26 points in California and 20 points in New Jersey and the Asian and Latino votes overwhelmingly.